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CSU Fullerton’s Puri: 'The Great Recession'
Dean Anil Puri and assistant professor of economics Mira Farka present their 2009 economic forecast.
By Susan BelknappPublished: April 23, 2009 02:05 AM
The Hyatt Regency Irvine was the location for economist Anil Puri, dean of Cal State Fullerton’s Steven G. Mihaylo College of Business and Economics and Mira Farka, assistant professor of economics, to present their 2009 Midyear Economic Forecast before a lunchtime crowd of about 250.
“Things are on track to go from being absolutely terrible to just bad,” says Puri. "I do want to clarify that this is not and will not be a depression."
Puri went on to say that the depth and breadth of this downturn has prompted them to re-label it "The Great Recession."
The most dire numbers are in unemployment and job losses. Puri and Farka predict Orange County will lose 20,000 jobs this year, which is an improvement over the 30,900 lost in 2008.
Other forecasts, such as the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp., have placed the job loss estimations as high as 43,200 and Chapman University’s prediction was as low as 9,000.
“We expect the county’s unemployment levels to continue to deteriorate until the national economy improves in the second half of 2009,” says the forecast. “Generally, the employment situation does not get better until the overall economic recovery is firmly established. Businesses begin rehiring only when their expectations for growth improve.”
Based on current conditions and trends, O.C.’s unemployment rate will reach 8 to 8.5 percent – the highest in 20 years – and payroll employment will decline by approximately 2 percent in 2009. Coupled with the 2 percent lost in 2008, that brings the payroll deficit to 4 percent.
In their assessment, Puri and Farka explain the national and local economic trends that have brought us to where we are now and what industries and sectors may see some growth in the second half of 2009 and which will see further declines.
Topics covered include:
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• National payroll and unemployment
• National home prices
• Consumer net worth
• Orange County median home prices
• Orange County payroll employment changes
• Orange County business expectations
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‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 23: Cal State Fullerton’s 2009 Midyear Forecast
CSU Fullerton honors Student Rec Center’s Gold LEED rating
‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 16: O.C.’s median home price
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“Things are on track to go from being absolutely terrible to just bad,” says Puri. "I do want to clarify that this is not and will not be a depression." Puri went on to say that the depth and breadth of this downturn has prompted them to re-label it "The Great Recession." The most dire numbers are in unemployment and job losses. Puri and Farka predict Orange County will lose 20,000 jobs this year, which is an improvement over the 30,900 lost in 2008. Other forecasts, such as the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp., have placed the job loss estimations as high as 43,200 and Chapman University’s prediction was as low as 9,000. “We expect the county’s unemployment levels to continue to deteriorate until the national economy improves in the second half of 2009,” says the forecast. “Generally, the employment situation does not get better until the overall economic recovery is firmly established. Businesses begin rehiring only when their expectations for growth improve.” Based on current conditions and trends, O.C.’s unemployment rate will reach 8 to 8.5 percent – the highest in 20 years – and payroll employment will decline by approximately 2 percent in 2009. Coupled with the 2 percent lost in 2008, that brings the payroll deficit to 4 percent. In their assessment, Puri and Farka explain the national and local economic trends that have brought us to where we are now and what industries and sectors may see some growth in the second half of 2009 and which will see further declines. Topics covered include: • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • National payroll and unemployment • National home prices • Consumer net worth • Orange County median home prices • Orange County payroll employment changes • Orange County business expectations NEXT PAGE >> Related headlines ‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 23: Cal State Fullerton’s 2009 Midyear Forecast CSU Fullerton honors Student Rec Center’s Gold LEED rating ‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 16: O.C.’s median home price |
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