ECONOMY
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2009 Economic Forecast, continued ...
“There is now little doubt that we are in the midst of a severe and
deep recession and that weakness is likely to last 18-22 months, the
longest since WWII,” says the forecast. “There is only a handful of
what one might consider relatively positive news: oil prices have
dropped precipitously, inflation is no longer a concern (at least in
the short term) and the policy response has been decidedly proactive
and aggressive.”
Puri and Farka predict that 2009 and early 2010
economy will remain bearish. Real economic activity will continue to
contract during the first three quarters of 2009 and rebound slightly
in the fourth quarter and early 2010. The recovery will gain momentum,
albeit sluggish, and stretch over six to eight quarters with
below-trend growth and above full-capacity unemployment numbers.
Overall
contraction of real GDP in 2009 is expected to be -2.2 to -2.4 percent
and a razor-thin positive growth rate in 2010 at 1 percent. Economic
growth as measured by GDP collapsed by -6.3 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2008.
In a document that reads like a screenplay of a
disaster movie, Puri and Farka detail how the economy plummeted in 2007
and 2008. Throughout the various sectors, losses are expected to level
off by the end of the year, but housing prices may see another 5 to 7
percent downward adjustment. Prices will not appreciate until the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has a chance to gain traction
and effect some change.
For a complete copy of the forecast, send a request to kemas@fullerton.edu; cost is $20.
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‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 23: Cal State Fullerton’s 2009 Midyear Forecast
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2009 Economic Forecast, continued ...
“There is now little doubt that we are in the midst of a severe and
deep recession and that weakness is likely to last 18-22 months, the
longest since WWII,” says the forecast. “There is only a handful of
what one might consider relatively positive news: oil prices have
dropped precipitously, inflation is no longer a concern (at least in
the short term) and the policy response has been decidedly proactive
and aggressive.”Puri and Farka predict that 2009 and early 2010 economy will remain bearish. Real economic activity will continue to contract during the first three quarters of 2009 and rebound slightly in the fourth quarter and early 2010. The recovery will gain momentum, albeit sluggish, and stretch over six to eight quarters with below-trend growth and above full-capacity unemployment numbers.
Overall contraction of real GDP in 2009 is expected to be -2.2 to -2.4 percent and a razor-thin positive growth rate in 2010 at 1 percent. Economic growth as measured by GDP collapsed by -6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.
In a document that reads like a screenplay of a disaster movie, Puri and Farka detail how the economy plummeted in 2007 and 2008. Throughout the various sectors, losses are expected to level off by the end of the year, but housing prices may see another 5 to 7 percent downward adjustment. Prices will not appreciate until the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has a chance to gain traction and effect some change.
For a complete copy of the forecast, send a request to kemas@fullerton.edu; cost is $20.
<< PREVIOUS PAGE
Related headlines
‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 23: Cal State Fullerton’s 2009 Midyear Forecast
CSU Fullerton honors Student Rec Center’s Gold LEED rating
‘OC METRO Minute,’ April 16: O.C.’s median home price
