EMPLOYMENT
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Chapman report indicates improved jobs picture
The report by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research says numbers show strong uptick.
By Susan BelknappPublished: November 06, 2009 11:25 AM
In a report by Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research released Friday, the California Index of Leading Employment Indicators shows a rise to 72.8, up from 69.5 in the third quarter. This is encouraging news after seven consecutive quarterly declines.
According to the report, this suggests that, in all likelihood, the rate of job loss index hit its lowest in the second quarter of 2009. However, the number is still well below 100, signifying further declines in year-over-year payroll employment growth well into early 2010.
The significant increase in the third-quarter real GDP growth had a strong impact on the turnaround in the indicator series. The improvement in the indicator series is consistent with Chapman’s earlier forecasts: that the national recovery would start in the fourth quarter, but an upswing in job growth and an accompanying drop in the unemployment rate will not occur until mid-2010.
The California Index of Leading Employment Indicators is calculated through a series of variables found to have a significant influence on California’s payroll employment growth, including movements in the lagged values of real GDP, real exports, the S&P 500 and the state’s total construction spending.
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According to the report, this suggests that, in all likelihood, the rate of job loss index hit its lowest in the second quarter of 2009. However, the number is still well below 100, signifying further declines in year-over-year payroll employment growth well into early 2010. The significant increase in the third-quarter real GDP growth had a strong impact on the turnaround in the indicator series. The improvement in the indicator series is consistent with Chapman’s earlier forecasts: that the national recovery would start in the fourth quarter, but an upswing in job growth and an accompanying drop in the unemployment rate will not occur until mid-2010. The California Index of Leading Employment Indicators is calculated through a series of variables found to have a significant influence on California’s payroll employment growth, including movements in the lagged values of real GDP, real exports, the S&P 500 and the state’s total construction spending. NEXT PAGE >> Related headlines First-time homebuyer tax credit extension gets OK 'OC METRO Minute,' Nov. 6: William Lyon Homes reports smaller net loss Newport Beach's Voit sees uptick in tenant transactions The results are in: O.C. automakers report October stats Financial reports: O.C. companies |
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