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Economic forecast: Recovery will be bumpy
CSUF Mihaylo College of Business and Economics releases its 2010 outlook; while things will continue to be tough, they’re only going to get better.
by Tina BorgattaPublished: October 27, 2009 10:00 AM
Last year, Cal State Fullerton business school Dean Anil Puri characterized the current recession and subsequent recovery as a Nike swoosh. This year, the upswing looks more like a squiggle than a smooth upward incline.
“It’s still going up, but it’s bumpier,” Mihaylo College of Business and Economics’ Mira Farka told a room full of business professionals during the school’s 2010 Economic Forecast Conference.
That’s because this recession ended up being much greater than anyone predicted. The report calls the number of job losses “shocking” and says the housing market gains of the last four years have been wiped out. The job market has squelched consumer spending, and homes won’t begin to appreciate until there’s significant growth in employment.
“A lot can happen in a year, and a lot has happened in a year,” Farka said. “A year ago, we were facing a near collapse of our national economy. … Thank God the year is behind us.”
And, Puri said, Orange County was hit just as hard as the rest of the nation: “This recession spared no one.”
But, he said, the positive factors of this recovery have sustainability.
For example, we’ve seen gains in the stock market, and the global economy is recovering faster than expected, according to the forecast.
Also, housing prices are stabilizing and homes are selling. And while much of the sales activity is tied to foreclosures, the report said it’s an indication of the “insatiable household/investor appetite for housing in Orange County.” Additionally, the forecast predicts the activity will continue – and increase – well into next year, both in Orange County and the larger Southern California region, provided low mortgage rates continue to be offered.
“And even a slight improvement will get the movement under way,” Puri said.
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“It’s still going up, but it’s bumpier,” Mihaylo College of Business and Economics’ Mira Farka told a room full of business professionals during the school’s 2010 Economic Forecast Conference. That’s because this recession ended up being much greater than anyone predicted. The report calls the number of job losses “shocking” and says the housing market gains of the last four years have been wiped out. The job market has squelched consumer spending, and homes won’t begin to appreciate until there’s significant growth in employment. “A lot can happen in a year, and a lot has happened in a year,” Farka said. “A year ago, we were facing a near collapse of our national economy. … Thank God the year is behind us.” And, Puri said, Orange County was hit just as hard as the rest of the nation: “This recession spared no one.” But, he said, the positive factors of this recovery have sustainability. For example, we’ve seen gains in the stock market, and the global economy is recovering faster than expected, according to the forecast. Also, housing prices are stabilizing and homes are selling. And while much of the sales activity is tied to foreclosures, the report said it’s an indication of the “insatiable household/investor appetite for housing in Orange County.” Additionally, the forecast predicts the activity will continue – and increase – well into next year, both in Orange County and the larger Southern California region, provided low mortgage rates continue to be offered. “And even a slight improvement will get the movement under way,” Puri said. NEXT PAGE >> Related headlines Cypress, SBA's Santa Ana District Office offer biz tips Grubb & Ellis announces $90 million preferred equity transaction O.C. bankruptcy filings rise in September |
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