“Things
are different now,” he says. “Housing starts following the 1983
recession, for example, went from 1 million units to 2 million units
after six quarters. That’s an increase of 1 million units. Where we’re
at now, we’re going to be going from 500,000 to 620,000 units.”
That
equates to a loss of about $90 billion in residential spending – a big
blow to the local economy, considering the housing market had long been
a key player in Orange County. It affects jobs at multiple levels in
multiple industries.
And employment is expected to
continue to decline through the first half of the year, with an
estimated gain of only about 1,000 jobs in the final two quarters.
But
it’s not all bad news: Orange County will likely emerge from the
recession sooner than the rest of California. And as bad as the
employment picture may seem, Doti says, we’ve seen worse.
“In
our darkest day, we were losing around 750,000 jobs a month,” he says.
“Everyone is wondering, ‘When is employment going to recover?’ We’re
still losing jobs in our current economy … but we’re actually doing
better than after the dot-com bust.”
The challenge is
finding out how to do even better, and how to prevent another mess like
we’ve just experienced. We’ve got to learn the new rules of the game.
Hopefully, this month’s issue – and courses like 100 Businesses For 100
Days – will help.