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LOCAL ECONOMY
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SoCal and national economies set for growth

The Cal State Fullerton Leading Economic Indicator showed slight improvement in the fourth quarter

by Caitlin AdamsPublished: March 05, 2012 09:15 AM

The Southern California Leading Economic Indicator showed a slight increase in the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.78 percent over the previous quarter, according to the latest report by the Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies at Cal State Fullerton's Mihaylo College of Business and Economics.

The Southern California Indicator’s value increased to 103.33 in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 102.54 in the third quarter. A value of over 100 indicates economic growth; high values point to more accelerated growth. SoCal employment also grew during the same period, at a very marginal rate of 1.06 percent.

The U.S. Leading Economic Indicator showed similar growth in the fourth quarter, with both indicators showing that the economies are due for an increase in activity on both local and national levels in the next three to six months. It is the ninth consecutive quarter of growth for the Southern California Leading Indicator since the third quarter of 2009.

The Southern California Leading Economic Indicator is calculated by indexing seven national and regional variables and comprises the economic regions of Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Imperial counties. Regional data include non-farm employment, the unemployment rate, the number of regional building permits and the Pacific region consumer confidence index, while national factors include interest rates, the Standard & Poors 500 stock index and the real money supply.


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