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SoCal indicator increases in second quarter

The economic index has shown growth for 11 consecutive quarters

by Caitlin AdamsPublished: August 30, 2012 01:45 PM

Southern California has been enjoying a favorable economic environment, according to Cal State Fullerton’s Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies. The Institute yesterday released the Southern California Leading Economic Indicator, which demonstrated an increase in the second quarter of 2012; it is the 11th period in a row to show growth. An increase suggests improved economic activity and growth in the region during the next three to six months.

The indicator climbed by 0.73 percent in the second quarter, increasing from an adjusted Q1 value of 105.89 to a current value of 106.67. During the same period, the national leading indicator grew 0.35 percent from an adjusted value of 95.23 to 95.57

A value of more than 100 indicates a positive economic environment.

Dr. Adrian Fleissig, a professor in Fullerton’s department of Economics and Statistics, prepares the indicator each quarter. He said that the SoCal indicator’s sustained performance is a very positive sign. “The increase [over] eleven quarters continues to show that SoCal is not going to into an economic slowdown. Given that the magnitude of the increases in the SC Leading Indicator are mostly less than one, these increases suggest only moderate economic growth but at least continued growth.”

The Southern California Indicator encompasses the area of Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside Ventura and Imperial counties, and takes into account regional and national data. Variables include the Pacific region consumer confidence index, interest rates, the unemployment rate, the S&P 500, and building permits, among other factors.

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