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Report: SoCal's economy improves in near future

Cal State Fullerton's regional indicator increased to 101.6 in the first quarter.

By Kristen SchottPublished: May 31, 2011 10:37 AM

Southern California's economic activity is expected to pick up in the next three to six months, according to a new report from the Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies at Cal State Fullerton's Mihaylo College.

The Southern California Leading Economic Indicator measures future conditions in local areas, including O.C., and is based on seven national and regional factors. The index increased to 101.6 in the first quarter, up 1.27 percent from 100.33 in the prior period. It's the first time the indicator has risen by more than 1 percent since the second quarter of 2004, and the figure marks the sixth quarter of consecutive increases – all factors that point to continued growth, according to the study.

Civilian employment also showed some improvements in the period; the factor increased 0.44 percent in the first quarter. And, the increase in regional nonfarm employment and a decrease in regional unemployment had a positive impact on the indicator.

Other positive variables include increases in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, Pacific region consumer confidence index and the change in the interest rate spread.

Negative factors include a decline in the money supply adjusted for inflation and a drop in regional building permits, according to the report.

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Readers Feedback:

What a joke. Economists, politicians or anyone with an axe to grind continue to pretend that this is an authentic recovery. Let's see what happens when the Feds printing press stops running. Over the long haul this is no way to run an economy, and a sustainable recovery will be impossible as long as such borrowing continues. But in the short term, the absence of government borrowing will reveal our artificial economy, and how dependent we have become.
Comment at 5/31/2011